How Many Wins Will it Take to Earn NFC Playoff Berth?

The NFL Schedule has worked out this year for the Thanksgiving weekend to kickoff five weeks of football to end the season in the month of December. The last round of bye weeks was taken the weekend prior to the turkey eating holiday and now it's time for the race to the finish.

The AFC is turning into the pillow fight of the century. If you were 5-6 going into Thursday you were one of the six teams tied for the final wild card spot. The Colts and Bengals haven't exactly been impressive. They lead their divisions at 7-4 having played better than the other bad teams. I say we just tell everyone to hit the links, and have a 3 team round robin tournament between the Chiefs, Broncos and Patriots. It would be a crime if anyone other than one of these three represents the conference in the Super Bowl.

The NFC is an entirely different story. It's really unfortunate Rodgers went down with the injury because this race would involve multiple teams from all four divisions. Instead it looks like the great white north will settle for the one team with whoever wins out between the Lions and the Bears. But if you look at the NFC South, NFC West and NFC East you'll find seven of the hottest teams in football in an all out sprint to the finish and there are multiple match ups among them down the stretch. Let's break it down and figure out how many wins it's going to take just to get into the dance in the NFC.

There are five spots up for grabs right now between the seven teams. So the good news is this years playoffs will be fantastic and nearly impossible to predict. As I mentioned before, the race in the North will be a good one and either the Lions or the Bears will earn a playoff spot. I don't see either team going for a wild card.

The seven remaining teams competing for division titles and wild card berths are the Seahawks (winners of 6 in a row), Saints (3 wins in a row), Panthers (7 wins in a row), Cardinals (4 wins in a row), Eagles (3 in a row), Cowboys (back to back wins with the come from behind victory over the Raiders), and 49ers.

Where 5-6 puts you in the playoffs in the AFC, 6-5 puts you in 9^th place in the NFC. So for all seven of these teams every game is a must win from here on out to hold their position. The ultimate goal is to win the division, but any of these teams would be more than pleased just to get into the playoffs and with a whole lot of head to head match ups that means these winning streaks are going to start coming to a hault and this should start to get sorted out. But it begs the question, what's the magic number? How many wins is it going to require to get into the playoffs?

For the last three seasons 10-6 got you in, but you needed some tiebreaker help. In 2009 it took 11-5 efforts out of Green Bay and Philadelphia just to earn a wild card. I think this year it will be a similar situation and even at 11 wins, tiebreakers may come into play.

Let's project it out and show the key match ups the rest of the season:

Seattle (10-1) easily in the best shape, but of all 7 teams they have the most difficult remaining schedule:

Coming off a bye week the Seahawks host the Saints on Monday 12/2, @San Fran 12/8, @New York Giants 12/15 (1:00 east coast kickoff), Arizona 12/22, & St. Louis 12/29.

The only game I can confidently say the Seahawks will win is against St. Louis on 12/29.

Projected Final Record: 13-3, NFC West Champs, #1 Seed

New Orleans (9-2) Also in very good shape, currently in 2^nd in the conference, and not as difficult remaining schedule but massive divisional games against Carolina remaining:

@Seattle 12/2, Carolina 12/8, @St. Louis 12/15, @Carolina 12/22, Tampa Bay 12/29.

The Bucs are playing better than earlier in the season and St. Louis is no cupcake in their house. But I think the Saints win both those games. I think they split with the Panthers and lose at Seattle.

Projected Final Record: 12-4, NFC South Champ due to a better record in Conference than Carolina, #2 seed

Carolina (8-3) Ok the win streak has got to end sooner or later, right? The Panthers, after going through murderers row in November and posting a 4-0 record, have a much more manageable schedule in December. They win 4 games again and drop the road game to New Orleans:

Tampa 12/1, @New Orleans 12/8, New York Jets 12/15, New Orleans 12/22, @Atlanta 12/29

In conference Saints will have a better record than the Panthers so that drops Carolina to a wild card.

Projected Final Record: 12-4, Wild Card, #5 Seed

San Francisco (7-4) The 27-7 loss to the Colts is a head scratcher but I guess they've won every other game they were supposed to. Only other losses have been to the Seahawks, Panthers, and Saints. And I think they get the Seahawks when they play them at home:

St. Louis 12/1, Seattle 12/8, @Tampa Bay 12/15, Atlanta 12/23, @Arizona 12/19

I think there's one slip up in there, but they can get 4 wins in their final 5 to lock up the final wild card. Even if they win out they lose the head to head tie breaker to Carolina and New Orleans. So it's going to be difficult for 49ers to do better than 6 seed. Crazy, huh?

Projected Final Record: 11-5, Wild Card, #6 seed

Arizona (7-4) Really tough finish with three road games and I think they'll be playing the Seahawks after they lose back to back games against SF and @NYG. Not the time you want to draw Russel Wilson and Co.:

@Philadelphia 12/1, St. Louis 12/8, @Tennessee 12/15, @Seattle 12/22, San Franciscio 12/29

Three wins in the next five? I don't see it. Good luck Arizona. It's been a nice run but the division is too tough to keep pace.

Projected Final Record: 9-7, Not in Playoffs, Too bad they aren't in the AFC

Philadelphia (6-5) The Eagles are playing for the division before the wild card. I think the Panthers/Saints/49ers/Cardinals/Seahawks make the wild card race too tough to deal with. But they are only one game back of the Cowboys in the East and playing well right now. Here's the remaining schedule and how I think it plays out:

Arizona 12/1, Detroit 12/8, @Minnesota 12/15, Chicago 12/22, @Dallas 12/29

That's 4 playoff contenders in the final 5. The Eagles 3 game winning streak has come against Oakland, Green Bay w/out Rodgers, and Washington. They won't win more than 3 of remaining 5.

Projected Final Record: 9-7, Not in Playoffs

Dallas (7-5) The Cowboys have .5 games up on the Eagles with the come from behind win against Oakland on Thanksgiving. Plus they get the Eagles at home to end the year so they only need to win 1 more game plus the match up with Philly in their in. I think they get a couple more wins but it doesn't help their seeding:

@Chicago 12/9, Green Bay 12/15, @Washington 12/22, Philadelphia 12/29

I don't care what happens at Chicago and if Rodgers is back for GB, the Cowboys will beat Washington and Philadelphia to wrap up the year and take the East.

Projected Final Record: 10-6, NFC East Champs, #4 Seed

NFC North: Detroit stomped Green Bay on Thanksgiving to KO the Packers hopes of Rodgers possibly getting them back into the playoff discussion. Their only remaining divisional game is the end of the year versus the Vikings. They get the Giants and Ravens at home on their remaining schedule and they beat Dallas head to head. Detroit will finish 10-6 and be the 3 seed. The Bears lost both match ups to the Lions and have Dallas and Philly on their remaining schedule. They must win out to win the division and that's not going to happen.

So the answer to my initial question is 11. It will take 11 wins minimum to earn a wild card in the NFC this year. It will take 10 wins to win the East and the North, although 9 might get the job done.

Aaron Marks is the Host of The Drive airing M-F 3-6 p.m. On Sports Radio 100.3 The Team in Myrtle Beach, SC. Tune in at www.teammyrtlebeach.com. Follow him on twitter @AMonFM