Thursday, April 18, 2013

Reaction to Panthers 2013 Schedule


Based on winning percentages from last year the Carolina Panthers have the toughest schedule in the NFL... but is it really? A schedule is so much more than wins and losses but how the games line up. How much travel do you do and when do you play critical divisional games. Let's break down how tough this schedule really is.

Yes the Panthers schedule is difficult. Yes this team is still trying to figure some things out. But new players in the secondary, some depth in the receiving corps, and another year of experience for Cam Newton means this team is better than they were a year ago.
Cam's rookie season was 6 wins. Last year they upped that to 7 and took 2nd place in the NFC South. Common sense this year says 8 wins. And with this schedule... I definitely see 8 wins. In fact their could be 9 or 10. One of my bold predictions for 2013 was a 10-6 campaign for the Panthers and I'll stand by that until the Panthers lose game #7. Here's some breakdown of the NFL's toughest schedule that actually isn't so tough.
  1. Divisional opponents. Every Sunday Matters in NFL Football. But 6 of your 16 games are against the division and winning the division means you're in the playoffs. In 2012 Carolina opened on the road in divisional play against Tampa Bay and they played everyone in the division within the first four weeks of the season. The one home game they got vs. New Orleans, they won. The other two were narrow loses on the road that led to a 1-6 start and quick end to the season. When the Panthers hit their stride they went 6-3 down the stretch winning 5 of their last 6 games of the year. This year the Panthers don't play a divisional game until Week 7 and 4 of their 6 divisional games are played over the final 5 weeks of the season. This year the Panthers will be playing the divisional opponents after working out the kinks and a more seasoned team should work through the early season woes quicker.
  2. Favors on the road. Winning in the NFL is hard. Winning on the road in the NFL is harder. And winning on a short week, or traveling cross country for an early Sunday afternoon game is damn near impossible. Weather conditions can play a factor as well. The Panthers got lots of favors on the road this year. They get Buffalo early on the road when it will be pleasant in upstate N.Y. and they get to go to Miami in November when it won't be 100 degrees outside in South Beach. Both west coast games are 4:05 kickoffs. Which makes sense. It's rare to see a west coast game kick at 1:00 EST and that makes it far easier for teams to travel east to west rather than west to east. Their first west coast game against Arizona comes after a bye and Arizona will be returning home after back to back road games AT New Orleans and AT Tampa Bay... boy no favors for the Cardinals this year in their travel plans. The Panthers have back-to-back road games only once and it's the two weeks following the bye @Arizona and @Minnesota.
  3. Favorable home games. To go with a favorable road schedule, the Panthers also get home games that will be tough situations for the opposition. It's the season opener so may not matter, but Seattle makes their first of three road trips to the east coast for 1:00 kick offs against Carolina on opening day. In last years 4-point win for the Seahawks kickoff was 4:05 in Charlotte. St. Louis has to travel in for a 1:00 game as well, one week after traveling to Houston and getting beat up by J.J Watt, Ed Reed and the Texans. And Carolina opens up a tough November stretch against Atlanta coming off 10 days of rest with a Thursday night game against Tampa the week before. Atlanta will be coming to Carolina 7 days after a return flight from Arizona that will get them home around midnight on Sunday night.
None of this stuff is the end all be all and doesn't guarantee a win or a loss. But it's amazing how a couple of tweaks to the schedule (afternoon game here, less travel there) can help a team survive the season.

I'm not going to sugar coat what is one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And the November line up of games followed by the stretch run of divisional match ups could be what kills a successful September and October for these Panthers. But when you start to dig a little bit the Panthers do have some things playing in their favor. And the start is very manageable. Get off to a good start, build some confidence, and play games that mean something in November and December can make all the difference for a playoff contender.

Here is the Panthers schedule with my predictions and how they get to 10-6 and a wild card spot in the NFC Playoffs:

Sun 9/8 vs. Seattle 1:00 p.m. Win (1-0)
Sun 9/15 @ Buffalo 1:00 p.m. Win (2-0)
Sun 9/22 vs. NYG 1:00 p.m. Loss (2-1)
BYE Week
Sun 10/6 @ Arizona 4:05 p.m. Win (3-1)
Sun 10/13 @ Minnesota 1:00 p.m. Loss (3-2)
Sun 10/20 vs. St. Louis 1:00 p.m. Win (4-2)
Thu 10/24 @ Tampa Bay 8:25 p.m. Win (5-2)
Sun 11/3 vs. Atlanta 1:00 p.m. Win (6-2)
Sun 11/10 @ San Francisco 4:05 p.m. Loss (6-3)
Mon 11/18 vs. New England 8:30 p.m. Win (7-3)
Sun 11/24 @ Miami 1:00 p.m. Loss (7-4)
Sun 12/1 vs. Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Win (8-4)
Sun 12/8 @ New Orleans 1:00 p.m. Loss (8-5)
Sun 12/15 vs. New York Jets 1:00 p.m. Win (9-5)
Sun 12/22 vs. New Orleans 1:00 p.m. Win (10-5)
Sun 12/29 @ Atlanta 1:00 p.m. Loss (10-6)

Sunday, April 7, 2013

A Couple of NCAA Basketball Rules That Need to be Changed


The Final Four on Saturday was awesome and I think we got the championship game most of America wants to see. But the way the games finished made me realize there are two rules that MUST be changed in college basketball.

The Final Four was fantastic. It lived up to almost all of it's expectations and now we can all look forward to what may be an instant championship classic between Louisville and Michigan. After thoroughly enjoying the games on Saturday night, I did have a slightly bad taste in my mouth with the way each game ended.

I'm not sure the outcome would've differed either way, but if these rules weren't in place then it would've given both losing teams a shot at victory in the final minute.

  1. Held balls and the possession arrow need to go. At the end of the Wichita State vs. Louisville game the Cardinals missed a critical free throw that would have made it a two possession game. Down three with about ten seconds to go, the Shockers pulled down the rebound. Luke Hancock made his final, and weakest, contribution to the win when he reached around Ron Baker and got his hand on the ball for approximately 0.5 seconds. The whistle blew, a held ball was called, and Louisville had the possession arrow. They would not miss the free throws on their next go around and that would seal the victory.
    Here's the problem with the call last night, and you'll notice a theme of consistency in this article. IT WAS THE RIGHT CALL. And that, my friends, is the problem. The possession arrow/held ball call has no place in college basketball. Things like that happen all the time with youth and high school players. Having a jump ball every time would get so redundant games would take three hours to play, so they must use a possession arrow at that level. But not in college. If a ball is tied up, and I mean truly tied up with both players having a legitimate claim of possession, then blow the whistle and jump it up at the free throw line NBA style. I'm tired of seeing teams strategize that if they can just get a hand on the ball, a held ball will be called and they have the possession arrow. It's a terrible call. It has no place in the game. And if the refs were more likely to let it play out because Baker obviously had possession last night, then we would've gotten to see what Wichita did down three as time expired.

  2. Charging vs. Blocking needs to be modified. There was less than a minute to go and Syracuse trailed Michigan by two. Brandon Triche drove the wide open lane and went up for a game tying lay up when Michigan's Jordan Morgan slid in his path. He started the slide as Triche went up and completed it (debatable) right as Triche made contact with him.
    Again, here's the problem. According to the College Rules... it was a charge, the foul was called on Triche, shot was no good, and Michigan now had the chance to seal the victory. The difference between this and the Louisville game, Michigan only extended their lead to three so Syracuse actually got another shot to tie the game or pull within one. They were unsuccessful in doing this so any Syracuse fan complaining about the charge affecting the outcome needs to shut it. But the bottom line is...this rule needs to be changed. Like going after a ball to get your hand on it and thus force a turnover... I hate that players can be taught that if they are within three feet of a guy going to the hoop they can slide in front of him even after he's airborne and draw a foul. Charging should be running through a player who has established himself defensively. I thought that was the rule... but apparently it's got some gray area that shouldn't even be there. Once again... the NCAA needs to look to the NBA on this one.

Ultimately, I think we got the championship game everyone wanted; except for Syracuse and Wichita fans of course. But to the fan who's bracket was busted a week or more ago and has no ties to the states of Kansas, New York, Kentucky, or Michigan... this is the game we all wanted.

Wichita is a great story and even I was pulling for the underdog last night. Plus one of my best friends graduated from there so I am a Shocker by association. But as my sports update anchor, Heidi, said the other day, we don't want Wichita State vs. Michigan.

We want Ali vs. Frazier.

We want Magic vs. Bird.

And what we got was Beilein vs. Pitino. Future Hall of Famer vs. Hall of Fame inductee. AP Player of the Year vs. The overall number one seed of the tournament.

And despite the Madness, that is how the tournament is supposed to end. Hopeful that neither of these rules affect the outcome of this one and looking forward to an outstanding title game.

Aaron Marks is the Sports Director and Afternoon Drive Show Host for CBS Sports Radio 100.3 'The Team' in Myrtle Beach, SC. Read his bio here and follow him on twitter @AMonFM or e-mail Aaron thoughts on this post