How Many Wins Will it Take to Earn NFC Playoff Berth?

The NFL Schedule has worked out this year for the Thanksgiving weekend to kickoff five weeks of football to end the season in the month of December. The last round of bye weeks was taken the weekend prior to the turkey eating holiday and now it's time for the race to the finish.

The AFC is turning into the pillow fight of the century. If you were 5-6 going into Thursday you were one of the six teams tied for the final wild card spot. The Colts and Bengals haven't exactly been impressive. They lead their divisions at 7-4 having played better than the other bad teams. I say we just tell everyone to hit the links, and have a 3 team round robin tournament between the Chiefs, Broncos and Patriots. It would be a crime if anyone other than one of these three represents the conference in the Super Bowl.

The NFC is an entirely different story. It's really unfortunate Rodgers went down with the injury because this race would involve multiple teams from all four divisions. Instead it looks like the great white north will settle for the one team with whoever wins out between the Lions and the Bears. But if you look at the NFC South, NFC West and NFC East you'll find seven of the hottest teams in football in an all out sprint to the finish and there are multiple match ups among them down the stretch. Let's break it down and figure out how many wins it's going to take just to get into the dance in the NFC.

There are five spots up for grabs right now between the seven teams. So the good news is this years playoffs will be fantastic and nearly impossible to predict. As I mentioned before, the race in the North will be a good one and either the Lions or the Bears will earn a playoff spot. I don't see either team going for a wild card.

The seven remaining teams competing for division titles and wild card berths are the Seahawks (winners of 6 in a row), Saints (3 wins in a row), Panthers (7 wins in a row), Cardinals (4 wins in a row), Eagles (3 in a row), Cowboys (back to back wins with the come from behind victory over the Raiders), and 49ers.

Where 5-6 puts you in the playoffs in the AFC, 6-5 puts you in 9^th place in the NFC. So for all seven of these teams every game is a must win from here on out to hold their position. The ultimate goal is to win the division, but any of these teams would be more than pleased just to get into the playoffs and with a whole lot of head to head match ups that means these winning streaks are going to start coming to a hault and this should start to get sorted out. But it begs the question, what's the magic number? How many wins is it going to require to get into the playoffs?

For the last three seasons 10-6 got you in, but you needed some tiebreaker help. In 2009 it took 11-5 efforts out of Green Bay and Philadelphia just to earn a wild card. I think this year it will be a similar situation and even at 11 wins, tiebreakers may come into play.

Let's project it out and show the key match ups the rest of the season:

Seattle (10-1) easily in the best shape, but of all 7 teams they have the most difficult remaining schedule:

Coming off a bye week the Seahawks host the Saints on Monday 12/2, @San Fran 12/8, @New York Giants 12/15 (1:00 east coast kickoff), Arizona 12/22, & St. Louis 12/29.

The only game I can confidently say the Seahawks will win is against St. Louis on 12/29.

Projected Final Record: 13-3, NFC West Champs, #1 Seed

New Orleans (9-2) Also in very good shape, currently in 2^nd in the conference, and not as difficult remaining schedule but massive divisional games against Carolina remaining:

@Seattle 12/2, Carolina 12/8, @St. Louis 12/15, @Carolina 12/22, Tampa Bay 12/29.

The Bucs are playing better than earlier in the season and St. Louis is no cupcake in their house. But I think the Saints win both those games. I think they split with the Panthers and lose at Seattle.

Projected Final Record: 12-4, NFC South Champ due to a better record in Conference than Carolina, #2 seed

Carolina (8-3) Ok the win streak has got to end sooner or later, right? The Panthers, after going through murderers row in November and posting a 4-0 record, have a much more manageable schedule in December. They win 4 games again and drop the road game to New Orleans:

Tampa 12/1, @New Orleans 12/8, New York Jets 12/15, New Orleans 12/22, @Atlanta 12/29

In conference Saints will have a better record than the Panthers so that drops Carolina to a wild card.

Projected Final Record: 12-4, Wild Card, #5 Seed

San Francisco (7-4) The 27-7 loss to the Colts is a head scratcher but I guess they've won every other game they were supposed to. Only other losses have been to the Seahawks, Panthers, and Saints. And I think they get the Seahawks when they play them at home:

St. Louis 12/1, Seattle 12/8, @Tampa Bay 12/15, Atlanta 12/23, @Arizona 12/19

I think there's one slip up in there, but they can get 4 wins in their final 5 to lock up the final wild card. Even if they win out they lose the head to head tie breaker to Carolina and New Orleans. So it's going to be difficult for 49ers to do better than 6 seed. Crazy, huh?

Projected Final Record: 11-5, Wild Card, #6 seed

Arizona (7-4) Really tough finish with three road games and I think they'll be playing the Seahawks after they lose back to back games against SF and @NYG. Not the time you want to draw Russel Wilson and Co.:

@Philadelphia 12/1, St. Louis 12/8, @Tennessee 12/15, @Seattle 12/22, San Franciscio 12/29

Three wins in the next five? I don't see it. Good luck Arizona. It's been a nice run but the division is too tough to keep pace.

Projected Final Record: 9-7, Not in Playoffs, Too bad they aren't in the AFC

Philadelphia (6-5) The Eagles are playing for the division before the wild card. I think the Panthers/Saints/49ers/Cardinals/Seahawks make the wild card race too tough to deal with. But they are only one game back of the Cowboys in the East and playing well right now. Here's the remaining schedule and how I think it plays out:

Arizona 12/1, Detroit 12/8, @Minnesota 12/15, Chicago 12/22, @Dallas 12/29

That's 4 playoff contenders in the final 5. The Eagles 3 game winning streak has come against Oakland, Green Bay w/out Rodgers, and Washington. They won't win more than 3 of remaining 5.

Projected Final Record: 9-7, Not in Playoffs

Dallas (7-5) The Cowboys have .5 games up on the Eagles with the come from behind win against Oakland on Thanksgiving. Plus they get the Eagles at home to end the year so they only need to win 1 more game plus the match up with Philly in their in. I think they get a couple more wins but it doesn't help their seeding:

@Chicago 12/9, Green Bay 12/15, @Washington 12/22, Philadelphia 12/29

I don't care what happens at Chicago and if Rodgers is back for GB, the Cowboys will beat Washington and Philadelphia to wrap up the year and take the East.

Projected Final Record: 10-6, NFC East Champs, #4 Seed

NFC North: Detroit stomped Green Bay on Thanksgiving to KO the Packers hopes of Rodgers possibly getting them back into the playoff discussion. Their only remaining divisional game is the end of the year versus the Vikings. They get the Giants and Ravens at home on their remaining schedule and they beat Dallas head to head. Detroit will finish 10-6 and be the 3 seed. The Bears lost both match ups to the Lions and have Dallas and Philly on their remaining schedule. They must win out to win the division and that's not going to happen.

So the answer to my initial question is 11. It will take 11 wins minimum to earn a wild card in the NFC this year. It will take 10 wins to win the East and the North, although 9 might get the job done.

Aaron Marks is the Host of The Drive airing M-F 3-6 p.m. On Sports Radio 100.3 The Team in Myrtle Beach, SC. Tune in at www.teammyrtlebeach.com. Follow him on twitter @AMonFM

NCAA Football BCS Nightmare Scenarios

Deck the Halls! 'Tis the Season. Nope, not for egg knog and holiday music... well. Maybe it's that to. But it's also the time of year where all of us who cover college football, are fans of college football, work in college football begin to freak out. We have two reasons for commencing freak out on our friends or radio shows:

1) EVERYBODY IS GOING UNDEFEATED! What are we going to do with 9 undefeated teams at the end of the year?!

Or...

2) All of the teams we had planned all season long in playing for a national championship are losing! We can't have Auburn in the national championship. We didn't PREDICT Auburn to be in the National Championship.

While neither of the above will come true (the BCS always seems to work outself out with 2 teams left standing at the end) it is fun to start to speculate on some of the nightmare scenarios for conference commissioners, University Presidents, and the TV Networks who have spent so much money to get these games and then possibly have nobody want to tune in.

Now that we've moved on past freak our scenario #1 (we're down to 3 relevant undefeated teams and I'm not sure ANY of them win out over the next 2 weeks) let's move on to scenario #2. Besides, this one is a lot more fun to discuss. Here are some very real possibilities that many people in college football do not want to have happen. I'll put a percentage of likelihood next to each one as well and we'll monitor over the next few weeks to see if any come true.

Commissioner John Swofford's Nightmare (ACC):
Florida State Football is back on top of the college football world. It has the best QB in college football and is sitting pretty with a #2 ranking and can walk into the national title game. There are two nightmare situations here... one we'll get into later on with FSU making it into the National Championship. Here's the other.
Duke is having the season of all seasons. This week they lose to a surging North Carolina team. VT barely beats UVA, Miami beats Pitt. Five of the Seven teams in the Coastal Division are all tied at 5-3 in conference play. The pundits in the ACC didn't even know this was mathematically possible. The tie breakers comes down to record in division which VT wins at 5-1 (this is Coach Beamer's 2nd worse teams in a decade, the worst was last year). The Hokies defense finds itself from the defense that dominated GT, UNC, and Miami. Jameis is charged with rape and is suspended from the game. An unranked VT team wins the ACC title game, which is attended by 30,000 people because the general public doesn't want to go with Jameis not playing, VT fans don't go because they always go and they think they'll lose, FSU fans are mad at the State Attorney and they don't buy tickets, a bunch of Duke fans who pre-purchased tickets decide to hold on to the money for hotel and gas and wait for the NCAA Basketball tournament. VT goes to the Orange Bowl, and gets pummeled by David Carr's little brother at Fresno State.
A national Championship and the Heisman tropy are gone in an instant. Clemson wins the Sugar Bowl over Auburn, but nobody gives a damn. Likelihood of Happening: A lot more than you realize. I'm going with 65%

Commissoner Mike Slives Nightmare (SEC):
After seven years of total domination, and two teams ranked in the top 5 going into the final week of the regular season it appears Mike Slive will make his annually scheduled trip back to the sidelines of the BCS National Championship game. But it's not to be. The SEC doesn't like surprise teams. They like traditional powers. It's what the conference was built on. Cinderella does not live in Mississippi or Alabama. So the thought of an Auburn vs. Missouri SEC Championship game will make Mike Slives skin crawl. And it's very possible. Two teams that combined to go 8-16 last year are now each one win away from a meeting in Atlanta. And both teams are HOME for that final game. If they both lose, it will be Alabama vs. South Carolina. Nick Saban vs. Steve Spurrier. The game will be played centrally between the two schools. You've never seen so much clashing of Garnet and Maroon before. This is SEC Football. But if Mizzou and Auburn pull it out, it will be Tigers vs. Tigers. Auburn would have an outside shot of leaping into the national championship with a win, but a win over Mizzou isn't as heavy as Ohio State beating Michigan State. So they won't leap that high. Plus this is a nightmare, right? In their 2nd year in the conference, the team who was invited to the SEC simply to have a rival for the Aggies and create balanced divisions wins the whole thing. Coach Gary Pinkel has this to say after winning the title, "We played well". Thanks, Coach. Likelihood of happening: 30%. Alabama is really good and should roll over Auburn. They will destroy whoever they play in Atlanta.

Commissioner Jim Delany's Nightmare (Big Ten):
This is all working according to plan. Urban Meyer has successfully built another evil empire in Columbus by pounding the powerhouses that are San Diego State, Buffalo and Florida A&M. But hey, they're undefeated. You also have a Michigan State team who inexplicably lost to Notre Dame, but is still 10-1 and could be ranked in the top ten for the Big Ten Championship. Alabama could lose to Auburn, FSU could lose their star, Ohio State is comfortably sitting at #3 ready to move into the national title game. Here's the nightmare. Michigan State, who nobody is talking about, goes up against the Golden Gophers in the season finale and they lose (Minnesota is ranked #25 after all). MSU already has their ticket punched to the Championship. They then go in and knock off the Buckeyes. Michigan State plays Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl. Lane Kiffin is invited in as an honorary captain and special assistant or some bogus coaching role for the Spartans where he's paid $1.2 Million for his services and naturally, they lose by 40. Likelihood of happening: 40% Don't write off the Spartans. The Lane Kiffin thing: 0%. But how great would it be?

Commissioner Larry Scott's Nightmare (Pac 12):
Stanfords gets into the top 5 national rankings. Loses to Utah. Somehow gets back to the top 5 (don't tell me Condy Rice doesn't have an impact on college football), Beats Oregon in the Thursday Night Game of the Century by gaining 3.5 yards per play every down. Follows that up by losing to Southern Cal who was 4-3 and totally irrelevant a month ago. Oregon gets back on track after the Stanford loss (not a bad loss and they're still in the race) by beating Utah and then they lose by 26 to Arizona who is dressed entirely in red head to toe, symbolizing the Devil in Larry Scott's Nightmare. Marcus Mariota says after the game the Rose Bowl isn't important to him because he's been there and done that. The Heisman contingency now leaves him off the ballot because they only give the Heisman to stand up individuals who respect the game and amateur athleticism of college sports. With two weeks to go in the season nobody is better than 2 losses.
Oh... wait. Sorry Larry. Likelihood of happening: 100%

Dr. Mark Emmert's Nightmare (President of NCAA):
Everything actually works out. FSU wins out. James is acquitted of any charges. Ohio State loses to Sparty. Alabama and FSU are the only 2 unbeatens from BCS conferences and will play for the national title. The final year of the BCS as we know it is a success.
But two things happen over Christmas. Mack Brown is privately told to put in his resignation or be publicly humiliated. He agrees to resign but Texas will wait until Jan 15 to announce the news. Also Nick Sabans wife purchases a home in Austin. The Real Estate agent leaks the news that Nick Saban will leave Alabama for Texas after the season. The University doesn't mind because they instantly win all recruiting battles with the Sooners and Aggies with this news.
Back in Tallahassee, some new evidence is uncovered in the Jameis Winston investigation and he is in fact charged with a felony by the State Attorney. By FSU Rule, he is immediately suspended from the football and baseball team. Since FSU can now no longer generate points, and A.J. McCarron can do nothing wrong in life with or without Saban (have you seen A.J's girlfriend?) Alabama wins another national championship. Tide fans are pissed thought because they will never win another national championship again with Saban gone, the ratings for the championship game plummet when 'Bama is up 21-0 at halftime and the college football season ends at the lowest of all low points. Likelihood of happening: .02%

Aaron Marks is the host of The Drive which airs M-F 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. on Sports Radio 100.3 The Team. Follow him on twitter @AMonFM